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Beat the Crowd: How You Can Out-Invest the Herd
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Train your brain to be a real contrarian and outsmart the crowd
Beat the Crowd is the real contrarian's guide to investing, with comprehensive explanations of how a true contrarian investor thinks and acts - and why it works more often than not. Best-selling author Ken Fisher breaks down the myths and cuts through the noise to present a clear, unvarnished view of timeless market realities. He also points out the ways in which a contrarian approach to investing will outsmart the herd. In true Ken Fisher style, the book explains why the crowd often goes astray - and how you can stay on track.
Contrarians understand how headlines really affect the market and which noise and fads they should tune out. Beat the Crowd is a primer to the contrarian strategy, teaching readers simple tricks to think differently and get it right more often than not.
- Discover the limits of forecasting and how far ahead you should look
- Learn why political controversy matters less the louder it gets
- Resurrect long-forgotten, timeless tricks and truths in markets
- Find out how the contrarian approach makes you right more often than wrong
A successful investment strategy requires information, preparation, a little bit of brainpower, and a larger bit of luck. Pursuit of the mythical perfect strategy frequently lands folks in a cacophony of talking heads and 24-hour noise, but Beat the Crowd cuts through the mental clutter and collects the pristine pieces of actual value into a tactical approach based on going against the grain.
- Sales Rank: #44372 in Audible
- Published on: 2015-07-07
- Released on: 2015-07-07
- Format: Unabridged
- Original language: English
- Running time: 551 minutes
Most helpful customer reviews
32 of 33 people found the following review helpful.
Spotting a Downturn in the Stock Market in Time
By laurens van den muyzenberg
If you are an active investor you will find this a fascinating and useful book. It teaches you how to spot when a bull market will become a bear market in time. That is get out before the decline. Fischer explains in great detail why the majority of investors gets out too early before the bull market has peaked or too late when a bull market has already for a considerable period changed to a bear market. He shows how taking the Leading Economic Indicator, the LEI, seriously is the right way.
Important reasons why investors get the timing wrong are lack of discipline and ignorance in the sense of wrong concepts. Discipline refers especially to not selling unnecessarily. Shares go up and down. Most investors when a position in a portfolio goes down consider selling and replacing it by a winner. They consider a small loss far more important than a large gain. This is behavior based on the past of what has already happened. Fischer points out that what matters is what is expected to happen in the next 30 months.
Another important factor is the media that write about the stock market. People are more interested in bad news than good news, and therefore the majority of articles are written about short-term disappointments and negative developments further in the future than 30 months. His definite view is that both short-term opinions and extrapolations of the past and past 30 months predictions are useless for predicting changes from bull to bear and vice versa.
Fischer points to more than thirty widely held views he considers wrong. Some examples. A high Price Earnings ratio (PE) has no validity in predicting a better or worse development than a low PE. Small companies do not have a superior long-term performance than large ones. The increase from long-term interest rates does not lead to a change in a bull market. Wars do not influence the stock market other than of the magnitude such as World War II. Fisher presents straightforward statistical proofs. He puts these concepts to tests to determine if these widely held view correspond to what happened in reality. It is necessary to look at a complete picture; there are always examples where these factors appeared to be right, but they are far fewer than when proven wrong. For learning to spot in time approaching bears and bulls this book is first class, five stars.
Fisher frequently states that he is not a sociologist but nevertheless holds very negative opinions about politicians. Many people will have different views. His negative views of political leaders are so strong that they even get in the way of his statistical proofs. For example he states on page 132 that in 1938 the GDP started to increase when Franklin Roosevelt was president and on page 143 that a bear market reigned from 1934 to 1942. The reality is that already in 1934, FDR's second year in office, GDP increased with 10.8%. He states about the ACA on page 152 that the uninsured were reduced with between 7 to 10 million and on page 154 only with 1.1% which is only 3.5 million or half.
Fisher as a non-sociologist has very definite opinions on government. He sometimes creates the impression that the kind of policies that President Hoover pursued most of the time of non-interference in the economy is the only right policy and political action. I nevertheless also enjoyed this part as he does also make thought-provoking comments on political action.
17 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
Helped me rethink my investment strategy
By P. Dayton
Just finished up with this book last night, and I'm glad I found it. I've dabbled on and off with investments over the years, with streaks of success and patches of rockiness. This book helped me to rethink some of my basic approaches to my portfolio, and in fact I'm probably going to look at my investments this weekend and make some changes based on what I've learned. In particular, I've found that I'm paying too much attention to short-term news and letting it make me either too excited or too scared. The funny thing is that I kind of already knew that about myself, and often times I would make a change knowing that I probably shouldn't. Reading through this book has affirmed that I should stick more to fundamentals and not worry so much about what I read in the paper or see on TV.
The book itself is an easy read and only took me two days to finish. It's also written in a way that seems easy to understand even for someone who doesn't have a background in investing or know all the technical jargon. I also like that there are a lot of charts and other graphics to visualize the points being made. I always find it easier to see a concept displayed in a graph so that was a big help for me.
Would definitely recommend this book for anyone managing their own investments or just interested in how it works.
19 of 22 people found the following review helpful.
Not one of Fishers best efforts
By Pete
Ken Fisher is a good writer I have read about 5 of his 10 previous books , plus his Forbes articles for many years. Phil Fischer ( his father ) was a brilliant thinker and investor , Ken has obviously got that gene.
If you have read Fisher's stuff and other similar thinking investment writers , the book does not offer much that is new. If you are looking for a book that is going to be the definitive guide on how to find the next great investments this is not the book for you. ( I don't think that exists ).
This book might help you become a better " critical thinker " regarding your investment decisions.
I gave this only three stars , not because it is bad book or promotes investing philosophies that I do not agree with , but because I think Fisher could have written a better book, he should have stopped at 10.
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